As American Idol heads into the first Live Shows of the season on March 30, where do all the contestants stand? While it’s impossible to know exactly how viewers will vote, there are some indicators that can help us predict who will likely make it far (and maybe even win) the competition.

For years, all of the contestants’ performances have been uploaded to the official American Idol YouTube account after each episode airs, and those that rack up more views tend to line up with the singers who receive a lot of votes and continue to move forward. Artists with more of a presence on social media (i.e. more Instagram followers) are also likely to pull in more votes.

 

Season 24 features social media voting for the first time, which means fans cast their votes by commenting in support of their favorite contestants on American Idol‘s official Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok pages. Those with more followers on social media are likely to earn the majority of the votes in this way as well.

Based on that information, we’ve rounded up our predictions for the Top 20, including who seems most likely to win at this time. We should note that half of the contestants gave their Top 20 performances on March 16, while the other half did on March 23, so the first group’s videos have been up on YouTube for longer, giving them a chance to earn more views.

Scroll down to check out our ranking of the Top 20 and hop into the comments section to let us know who you’re rooting for to win!

American Idol, Season 24, Mondays, 8/7c, ABC

20. Abayomi

Abayomi fell at the bottom of the pack for both YouTube views (29,000) and Instagram followers (5,700).

19. Ruby Rae

Ruby Rae has 44,000 YouTube views on her most recent performance and is near the bottom of the cast in Instagram followers (9,950), which could put her in danger.

18. Madison Moon

Pop-rocker Madison Moon fell toward the bottom in YouTube views (46,000) and has 10,400 Instagram followers.

17. Kutter Bradley

Kutter Bradley has the least amount of Instagram followers in the group (8,700), but has racked up 50,000 YouTube views on his most recent performance.

16. Lucas Leon

Lucas Leon falls toward the bottom of the pack with 49,000 YouTube views and 15,300 Instagram followers.

15. Philmon Lee

Philmon Lee has the second lowest YouTube views (41,000), but boasts 23,200 followers on Instagram.

14. Makiyah

Makiyah falls on the lower end when it comes to Instagram followers (9,600), but her Top 20 performance has 65,000 YouTube views so far.

13. Jake Thistle

Jake Thistle is on the lower end for YouTube views (67,000) from the first group of Top 20 performances, and his Instagram following is at 14,100.

12. Rae Boyd

Rae didn’t take long to get 63,000 YouTube views after her March 23 performance, but she falls on the lower end of Instagram followers (14,500).

11. Julián Kalel

Although Julián Kalel’s YouTube views are on the lower end (46,000), he was in Week 2 of the Top 20 and has an impressive Instagram following (comparatively) at 35,700.

10. Jordan McCullough

Jordan McCullough has proven to be a favorite amid his peers, winning the platinum ticket in the Ohana Round. His Top 20 performance is up to 55,000 YouTube views and he has 20,700 Instagram followers.

9. Genevieve Heyward

Genevieve Heyward falls on the low end for Instagram followers (10,800), but she’s performing impressively when it comes to YouTube views (83,000).

8. Chris Tungseth

With 84,000 YouTube views and 22,400 Instagram followers, Chris Tungseth will likely be safe in the competition for now.

7. Jesse Findling

Jesse Findling is sitting at 90,000 YouTube views and 19,400 Instagram followers.

6. Daniel Stallworth

Daniel Stallworth has found himself with an impressive Instagram following (72,600), and his last performance is up to 80,000 YouTube views.

5. Braden Rumfelt

Although Braden Rumfelt only has 22,600 Instagram followers, a low number compared to some of his fellow contestants, his Top 20 YouTube views are up to 146,000.

4. Keyla Richardson

In just two days, Keyla Richardson racked up 174,000 YouTube views on her Top 20 performance, and she also boasts 78,200 followers on Instagram.

3. Brooks Rosser

Brooks Rosser has the second most YouTube views from the Top 20 (240,000), but with his Instagram followers currently at 66,800, he falls in third place in our ranking.

2. Kyndal Inskeep

Kyndal Inskeep has the most Instagram followers of the entire Top 20 (351,000) and the third most YouTube views (133,000).

1. Hannah Harper

Ever since Hannah Harper’s audition went viral, it was no secret that she was going to be a threat in this competition. For her most recent performance, she’s No. 1 in YouTube views by a landslide (333,000), and has an impressive following on Instagram (336,000) as well.